Lampe: Expect a Debt Ceiling Vote Late Sunday Evening

Heres the scoop since yesterday:
- Boehner's plan cuts $838 Billion in Spending
- Reid's plan cuts a little over $2 Trillion in Spending
- Both plans have little chance passing both houses

However, as Chris Matthews put it, "the pre-game" strategies are now over and the real negotiations begin. As reported yesterday morning, the tea-party freshmen Republicans reluncantly got their "asses" in line (Boehner said it, not me). In this time of constant political positioning for candidate campaigning, it only makes sense that a grand deal will happen in the final hours of Sunday Evening, hours before the opening bell of the markets begin to panic, or sigh in relief. I believe a repeat congressional performance of the health care bill will happen with the debt ceiling vote.

According to a recent poll, it seems like Obama is winning the rhetoric on this issue of compromise (56% of Americans Agree) with the Democrats holding their guns with the "shared sacrifce" anti-tax for the rich strategy and the Republicans trying to blame the President for lack of leadership. Hopefully the political theatre will die down considering the tea party policy shift on the debt ceiling issue.

Considering some bill will pass that has the debt ceiling saving us from credit rating catastrophe, I start to wonder if the debt ceiling debate should be part of the political arena. Just like the interest rates and printing money, shouldn't the debt ceiling be considered on the same circumstances. After all, if we do not raise the debt ceiling, global economic calapse is highly likely. Therefore, I believe that the debt ceiling should be under the Federal Reserve, the entity that allows our economic power to flow freely without any governmental disruption.

Although, for the markets' sake, we can get this debt ceiling crisis done earlier, these modern political times trends to the likeliness of last minute politics. Where the last bill will likely be the foundation of the grand compromise. If you listen to the news today, you are hearing that a 'new bill' is in the works. Let's see what that bill is... Didn't someone mention 'grand compromise'?

"My tea is getting cold!" America's switch to coffee 2012. (Election Outlook)

For someone who is proud of their Colombian hertage, I don't drink a lot of coffee. Earlier this academic year, I decided to drink tea on a more regular basis. It was cool doing the whole 'zen' thing while getting a healthy dose caffeine. However, I realized tea drinking is more than I bargained for. I had to buy a tea infuser, figure out which tea is healthier, etc. Summary, it seemed more time consuming for me than to just go to Starbucks and get my carmel mocha.

Political capital is only good when you know how to use it. The tea party had a great message in the beginning. Hell, even I was somewhat happy that someone is willing to hold the government in check financially. Unfortunately, whether you believe it was the media or misguided direction, the tea party's tent began to expand with radical right policies. It was a balance between soliticiting political capital donations while spending it to attack the budget.

The current news are talking about the Ryan Plan creating a litmus test for Republican Candidates. Yes, the Ryan Plan did address the reformation of entitlement programming, but attached came the (unwanted) radical right rhetoric baggage that came with tea party support. As Friedman discusses in his book discussing the next decade, it is difficult to analyze individual actions or behaviors. In this sense, only time and public opinion polls will determine how people feel about the (soon to be) failed Ryan Plan.

I still believe we are looking at a (close to) mirror image election cycle of 1996 elections, there is foundations for Democrats to take back the House. (In 1996, there was no party change in each body due to economic success along with budgetary issues). If you talk to anyone who studied Political Science, we were all taught that GOING AFTER ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS IS A DEATH SENTENCE. If any reform is necessary, it has to be a phase-in so that it doesn't rattle the populations. Although I do not condone for a single party government takeover, maybe this will tame the radical right that hijacked the Tea Party. As history tends to repeat itself, this happened to the Religious Right when they gained more political capital they knew what to do with.

The tea is getting cold, it is now America's decision to put it in the microwave, switch to coffee, or wait for a new drink to come (something less bitter). The tea is bitter due to the radical right rhetoric, the coffee is bitter due to the possible rubber stamp democratic takeover, and the new drink... well, we'll find out over time.

Hope all is well,
The Situationalist