Saturday, June 23, 2012

Relooking the "Liberal Media" Argument

Since the beginning of my time in the modern political arena, there's not a political cycle that goes by that I hear a conservative friend of mine say the media, in general, is exaggeratedly slanted to the left. They site the research that shows that Obama had way more positive news stories than McCain in the 2008 Presidential Election, as if Sarah Palin had nothing to do with it. They also site that out of the major news outlets, in television, only one news station has a noticeable bias to the right. Although I do agree that these arguments have some merit, I do not believe the "liberal media" is trying to brainwash America into becoming a far left socialist country.

Why... the first concern for me with this argument is that my conservative friends constantly talk only about the news media on television. They look at how FOX News has to go up against the mean and highly manipulative MSNBC and CNN. Yet, they fail to discuss the popular and numerous conservative radio talk shows that do not get as much scrutiny when they get the information wrong. Here in Milwaukee, there was not a time when listening to Newsradio 620 or WISN 1330 that I heard the conservative talk show host take a news article or report and conservatively spin it to the point where angry liberal callers get cut short and the conservative callers seem like the smartest political analysts since sliced bread was invented. Driving in my car, it was very difficult for me to find one liberal radio talk show host that could spin the issues like the conservative talk show hosts could.

This phony argument goes deeper than just the conservative radio and the liberal television stations. Lets take a look at the NBC, the company that is more widely known as being owned by General Electric. NBC also has the liberally slanted news channel MSNBC. While at this point, these points strikes up to big arguments for this news organization to be slanted to the left. NBC also has the news state in Wisconsin with the call name TMJ4. Wait, isn't TMJ4 connected with WTMJ Newsradio 620... the conservative talk radio. This is a great example where media companies are not a liberal army, but rather another company that is profit motivated that finds the best way to diversify their consumers. The same example can be applied to ABC which is connected to WISN 12 News and WISN 1330 radio in Wisconsin. One could even look at Rupert Murdoch's Empire (Owner of FOX News) where he supports one side of an argument in one country and is against it in another country with a different news name (he owns multiple international news organizations).

So there you have it, my reason why the liberal media argument has little merit.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

My Experience at the Barrett Camp Election Night

Besides my election party I had with Sam Dunlop who ran for State Assembly, I never went to a big election night party such as the one I went to for Tom Barrett Tuesday Evening. I did not go because I was an avid Barrett supporter. However, I felt the need to experience something that was quite historic considering Walker was the first American Governor in history to survive a recall election. I also want to send a personal thank you to my friend Caitlin for accompanying me last night! I do not think I would have had the guts to go by myself!

As a political analyst, I have always tried to stay as non-biased as possible. However, I found it difficult to fully understand what was happening with the election. Between being shocked to meet Jesse Jackson and trying to utilize my smart phone in a crowded room, I started getting my information on the hardcore supporters being overly optimistic about Barrett and discrediting the projections coming out of the news media. An example of this  was when people in the crowd saying that Milwaukee and Racine had still more people waiting to vote when the polls closed at 8PM.

As a person going along for the campaign ride, I was able to meet some awesome people, some angry and some just plain cool. I randomly walked up to a bunch of teachers with solidarity t-shirts and we had a small discussion on education and the issues relating to accountability. I also met some differently dressed firefighters who were part of the biker brigade. They personally knew Mahlon Mitchell and were also part of the Firefighters Union. I had a great conversation with them about the decline of the working class and why they felt it was important to keep fighting.

Most importantly, I was able to rethink about how politics is not a game... people's livelihoods are at stake when any policy is put into action. When Barrett lost, I felt bad to see that there were people in that room were hoping for someone to listen to them and fight for their struggles that seem impossible to overcome. Although I predicted Barrett would lose, one should not discredit the passion of the people I met in that room tonight. I also have to praise Governor Walker on his speech last night where he made it clear of wanting to work together. As of now, it appears as if he truly understands that he could have done things better when communicating his policies.

In the future, I could definitely see Mahlon Mitchell coming up through the Democratic ranks. It almost seemed like he was better when he was not reading from his notes. He did a great job to re-energize the party whom just heard Barrett give his concession speech. Now that all this is over, we can stop this election nonsense for a while... oh wait... Republican Primaries for U.S. Senate is coming up... 



Lampe's Analysis and Predictions on the Recall Election (VOTE TODAY)!

It is finally here. The recall election that will determine the fate of Governor Walker. Throughout the course of the recall campaign, I expressed concern of the shady conversations Walker had with donors and avid supports, while also expressing weak political campaigning from Tom Barrett. I do have to note that Barrett came out strong the week before the vote today bringing President Clinton for a surprise last minute visit and confidently and harshly calling out Walker about his policies and actions during the last debate at the Marquette University Law School.

Wisconsin also noticed that polls have given Walker a slight edge. Some polls showed him up as many as 8 points, while others should him around 4 points up. In my prediction, I believe Walker will win by three points. That is, if likely voters only vote today. The other side of my prediction is that Barrett could win by 1 point. After calling some of my sources throughout the state, registration lines have been busy to vote for the first time in their wards. We wont know if these new registered voters were leaning more Republican or Democrat. One could reason that, when Walker won, Democrats were not energized during the 2010 election that gave Walker the slight edge last go around. This time, Democrats/Liberals are angerly energized from the hard line Republican Policies.

So there you have it... although I think Walker has an advantage, I believe the polls might be slightly off due to the possibility of unlikely voters voting this going around (hence my analyzed margin of error).

Walker wins by 3%
or
Barrett wins by 1%

Sunday, May 20, 2012

The Simple Economics of Discrimination

Diversity is a topic that comes up quite frequently, whether having debates on affirmative action policies or hate crimes against a particular marginalized group in society. I'm surprised when working in higher education when the topic of diversity does not come up. It could just be me, but I get the perception that the voices I usually hear  are the loud voices of those who feel there is too much government interference on hiring minority candidates and those who feel that American Society is still as racist as it was in the Early 1900's. 

Considering the diversity conversations usually get brought up by the confronting fringes of society, I wanted to bring this topic more down to earth and explore the economics behind discrimination. This article will take a micro-economic approach that views the production of a business firm selling a good or service to consumers. The one assumption to this analysis is that discrimination of a producer leads to a direct or indirect action. It then also leads to them not selling to a consumer or indirectly influencing the consumer not to buy that good or service on the basis of feeling discriminated against. 

Pretend you are an owner of a mid-sized grocery store that is located in a mostly Caucasian neighborhood, but also has a noticeable group of African Americans and Latinos in the area. Down the road, there is also a gay bar. being realistic, people do not see "white only" signs anymore or business owners that bluntly kick anyone out due to their backgrounds. However, there are times where people show visible signs of being uncomfortable with a minority cultural group whether intentional or not (microaggressions). In this particular example: If the grocery store owner is prejudice against gay people and has had limited interaction with other racial groups, these minority groups will go elsewhere for their grocery needs and give negative publicity online via social media and review sites about the business. This means less products being purchased in the store and less revenue for the owner. 

Below is a short run supply and demand curve that shows when a business owner engages in discriminatory behavior with marginalized/minority consumers. The demand curve (slanting left to right) shifts to the left because the owner has a change in the consumer base, excluding the marginalized groups. The supply curve (slanting right to left) does not change because the production does not change in the short run. As you can see, Q1 goes to Q2 showing a decrease while there is also a decrease in price from P1 to P2. Although the price drop is good for the loyal consumers in the short run, it stagnates the growth of the owner's business and  decreases its comparative advantage to the business' competitors. (more text below graph).


With this analysis, one could come to an economic and realistic understanding why it is important not to discriminate against marginalized/minority groups. If one looks at it in more of a macro-level perspective, one could argue that the economy can be hindered by discriminatory activity. Especially if a big portion of private or public sector engages in such activity. 


Friday, May 11, 2012

What I learned from the Walker Recall Fiasco

On Tuesday, we saw a historic and rare political event happening with the Recall Election of Gov. Scott Walker. We also noticed that there was a higher voter turning topping a little over 30% (as reported by the Appleton Post Crescent). Although it was an  interesting event that politicos will analyze from now until November, the current political state of Wisconsin is in much need of compromise and repair. Although you hear some political rhetoric about getting along, we are mostly hearing why their economic policy is better and how the other completely destroyed the jobs outlook of the state/city (Milwaukee).

Now what did I learn from this? Quite simply, this election throws a curveball in some politicos' minds about the voter not being rational in the sense of having a short mind-span when it comes to negative political events relating to a political candidate. The original frame of mind comes from how consumers have recently recently reacted to some economic tragedies of well knowing businesses. For example, one could notice consumers forgiving Ford quickly for their tire issue on their expeditions in the 90's and Toyota more recently with their brakes issue. Now, however, one could notice a difference in the Wisconsin voters based on the timeline the recall elections occur. 

One must remember that this all started back in February 2011 (over a year ago) when Gov. Walker introduced the collective bargaining bill to Wisconsin Residents. Once the law went into effect last summer, Wisconsin voters had to wait to petition a recall until the first year of the Governor's term was complete (per election law). Consider that timeline, many voters against the bill had to wait 6 months until they could start the whole process. Also considering all the media slip ups politicians make on almost a daily basis, many politicos did not think the recall election was overwhelmingly possible. Then, the news broke out about how the Democratic Party got over a million signatures, which surprised not only the Walker Campaign Team, but also myself.

We will have to wait and see what happens to Scott Walker in a few months when Barrett faces him in the general recall election, however I am curious what the Obama Campaign Team is thinking right now given this analysis. Considering 2 weeks is usually political eternity for political candidates, angry voters waiting impatiently for 6 months to recall a governor is a new twist in political strategy. Is 6 months for a controversial collective bargaining bill the same as a 2.5 year wait of angry voters wanting to kick Obama out due to his health care bill. Although I still think many voters are going to elect their candidate based on economic indicators, I am considering changing my mind about whether the healthcare bill will pop up as a strong secondary reason why an angry conservative voter will vote for Romney instead of Obama.  

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Breaking News: Tom Barrett wins Wisconsin Primary

As mentioned last night in the last blog article, it was to be expected that Barrett would win the election. While Kathleen Falk was there in the beginning, I believe she had too much support from the unions. That made more centered democrats worried what radical policies a Falk Administration begin.

What was more surprising that the fake lt. Governor candidate Isaac Weix got more votes than Ira Robins. Regardless, the round two battle between Walker and Barrett will mostly be on the economy. If Walker can lower the unemployment rates in Wisconsin, he can coast through an election win. If now, expect Barrett to hammer Walker on a poor economic record.

What also still remains is how the state election could be the bell weather election for the national presidential election. If Walker keeps his position as Governor, does that smell trouble for the Obama Administration. The reverse could happen for the Romney Campaign. Final thought: As Carville put it yesterday... "wake up Democrats, You could lose this election." Democrats must not be too confident that they have any election in the bag, considering the Economy has not made up its mind on being a bull or a bear (going up or going down).

Monday, May 7, 2012

Last Minute Guide for the Last Minute Voter: 2012 Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary

As tomorrow holds the answer to who will run against Scott Walker in the recall election, here is the analysis on each other candidates and prediction on will be the Democratic Recall Nominee. (There's no sugar coating in this analysis)

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett 
Tom Barrett is more well known in the City of Milwaukee then elsewhere in the state. Let's be honest, most people hate Milwaukee mayors because of their inability to look past the usual crime that occurs in a large city (which means they hardly go into the city). However, that's not a big deal in this race because many years of voting shows most Democratic support concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane County.

Those living in or have access to Milwaukee television see Barrett as a candidate who has seen some revitalization in the city making the area around the Marquette Interchange look better. He also was a survivor of a vicious attack and came back to push better crime preventive measures. The downside of his candidacy, he ran for governor in 2010... against Scott Walker. It's unfortunate that the un-electable 2010 candidate has become the electable Democratic Primary Candidate. Although he sometimes put his foot down when getting heat to talk about an issue, he is not consistent which worries some voters of him not being strong enough to go against a strong vocal Walker.

County Supervisor Kathleen Falk
Kathleen Falk comes from Dane County, another state stronghold for Democratic Voters. She has been the county supervisor for a long time. Known as the "Union Candidate," she was there from the beginning of the movement to recall Scott Walker to restore the collective bargaining rights of public workers. Her strong stance is a double edged sword. On one hand, she showed her leadership in standing for what she believes in and did whatever she could to get things done. On the other hand, her stance and doing whatever it takes to restore collective bargaining doesn't scream being the "mom" of Wisconsin to unite the state back together.

Her other downside has to deal with her early entrance into the race. Some political analysts believe that Barrett entered the race because there were core Democratic Supports not fully in love with a Falk Candidacy. This could also be proven with the push for former US Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold to enter into the race. If she wins the nomination, she needs to strengthen her tone and perception of being a strong leader.

The Other Two Un-electable Candidates
When it comes to Professor LaFollette, he had some good ideas considering hes a reputable college professor. During the debate, his message focused on the "Wisconsin Idea" where education is a strong foundation along with collaborating with people one may disagree with. Although he had some interesting ideas, I view this candidate as a potential advisor on educational policy, especially for higher education institutions.

Out of the two un-electables, I really would have endorsed Vinehout if she was given enough media attention and was electable according to the party higher ups. Unfortunately, this state senator is not. Regardless, I liked her strong voice during the debate and she actually gave ideas on how to work on pushing legislation through realistically... and not in a populist was like how some of the other mainstream candidates would do.

My Prediction
I agree with the polls showing a good lead for Mayor Tom Barrett. Although he is not the strongest candidate the Democrats got out there right now, he has a realistic chance against Walker. Therefore, I predict it will be Barrett vs. Walker round 2.


Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Romney likely to win Presidential Nomination for Republicans

Yes, it does seem like there was a disappointing night for Mitt Romney and a promising one for Rick Santorum. However, the national spotlight has put negative attention on Santorum regarding his campaign's inability to file for being on several ballets in a handful of counties and/or states. As of this point, a safe assumption can be made that Romney will be the nomination winner, keeping his high campaign money spending, strong economic message, and pending no major screw ups (like a Howard Dean moment).

Although a comfortable prediction of his win can be made, his speech made in Massachusetts tonight could be a prelude to tactical mistakes that could cost him the candidacy or a second term in the White House if he wins the Presidential Election. He talked about balancing the budget by cutting unnecessary programs and pretty much undoing everything President Obama has done. The question that needs to be asked is if he over-promised tonight by telling his supporters of all the different taxes he wants to repeal, like the death tax and cutting taxes for businesses.

There is statistical evidence to place a bet on Mitt Romney winning due to the public opinion polls being reported in recent months. Many of the polls showed that the economy and deficit were one of the top concerns of Americans on the list. Then, there is a mixture of ranks between repealing Obama-Care, pro-life issues, and security. One can make a general correlation with what areas (regions, counties, states) presidential candidates won with those public opinion polls. For example, Mitt Romney were winning well populated areas that have economically established Republican voters. This gives Romney the economy candidate which gives him a statistical edge. Gingrich showed himself being a regionally south candidate while Romney being the leader of rural and Christian conservatives. 

Friday, February 24, 2012

Friday Mike Out Podcast (2/24/2012)




Welcome to Friday Mike Out, I am your host Mike Lampe from the situationalist.

These are your top three headliners from the week

1. Rick Santorum was the momentum candidate going into Wednesday's Presidential Debate. However he seemed to have slipped! It was, instead, Mitt Romney acting like the comeback kid, acting strong although a little stiff.

2. Things are getting interesting in Wisconsin Politics. Governor Scott Walker has seen better days considering the recall election pending to happen and his former aids indicted for illegally campaigning.

There is a bright side to Walker's troubles. There seems to be a hint of hesitation among liberals regarding the potential Democratic Recall Candidates. Along with poll numbers, this can be shown by the hype Russ Feingold got after telling Stephen Colbert on Comedy Central he is not looking to run.

3. Going back to Wednesday's blog, a new Marquette University Law School Poll indicates Obama still beating all potential Republican Candidates... This means the contraception issue did not affect him as much as some political commentators thought it would.

That is it for your Friday Mike Out from the Situationalist... Have a good weekend!

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Election 2012: Obama's Win with Contraception Fiasco?

Welcome to The Situationalist beginning of Coverage of Election 2012!


Two weeks ago, it was made known that the Obama Administration had implemented a rule that forced religious institutions to cover the use of contraceptives to women that were asking for it. The media focused on the expressed anger of Catholic Bishops who oversaw Catholic medical centers and universities housing health services for their students. One could say this was another run of the mill when it comes to Democrats standing for Women's Issues while Republicans show their loyalty to the religious right.

However, one should wonder why the Obama Administration implemented this rule considering social issues have not been brought before in this election cycle. Why give the Republicans a reason to rally up a constituency that had been dormant for the last year and a half? Although some are calling foul and others are calling this an embarrassing move by the Obama campaign machine, it is interesting what has happened since this event occurred. Below are the events that occurred starting with the implementation of the policy:

1. Media recognizes implementation of the contraception policy
2. Political outcry by Catholic Leaders and other social conservatives
3. Rick Santorum (R) gains bump in the polls for his strong stance on social issues
4. Mitt Romney loses ground to Santorum and loses a handful of primaries
5. President Obama announces compromise given political outcry

Intentional or not, the Obama Administration has been able to shake up the Republican Primary in the short run which has made it harder for conservatives to fully back Romney as their Republican Nominee. Some political commentators are speculating that Santorum has become the momentum candidate which could lead to nomination. Although the Republicans will eventually unite to nominate a presidential candidate, The Obama Administration has been able to indirectly make political campaign contributions to Republicans more sporadic.

Blog/Article by The Situationalist - Mike Lampe