What I learned from the Walker Recall Fiasco

On Tuesday, we saw a historic and rare political event happening with the Recall Election of Gov. Scott Walker. We also noticed that there was a higher voter turning topping a little over 30% (as reported by the Appleton Post Crescent). Although it was an  interesting event that politicos will analyze from now until November, the current political state of Wisconsin is in much need of compromise and repair. Although you hear some political rhetoric about getting along, we are mostly hearing why their economic policy is better and how the other completely destroyed the jobs outlook of the state/city (Milwaukee).

Now what did I learn from this? Quite simply, this election throws a curveball in some politicos' minds about the voter not being rational in the sense of having a short mind-span when it comes to negative political events relating to a political candidate. The original frame of mind comes from how consumers have recently recently reacted to some economic tragedies of well knowing businesses. For example, one could notice consumers forgiving Ford quickly for their tire issue on their expeditions in the 90's and Toyota more recently with their brakes issue. Now, however, one could notice a difference in the Wisconsin voters based on the timeline the recall elections occur. 

One must remember that this all started back in February 2011 (over a year ago) when Gov. Walker introduced the collective bargaining bill to Wisconsin Residents. Once the law went into effect last summer, Wisconsin voters had to wait to petition a recall until the first year of the Governor's term was complete (per election law). Consider that timeline, many voters against the bill had to wait 6 months until they could start the whole process. Also considering all the media slip ups politicians make on almost a daily basis, many politicos did not think the recall election was overwhelmingly possible. Then, the news broke out about how the Democratic Party got over a million signatures, which surprised not only the Walker Campaign Team, but also myself.

We will have to wait and see what happens to Scott Walker in a few months when Barrett faces him in the general recall election, however I am curious what the Obama Campaign Team is thinking right now given this analysis. Considering 2 weeks is usually political eternity for political candidates, angry voters waiting impatiently for 6 months to recall a governor is a new twist in political strategy. Is 6 months for a controversial collective bargaining bill the same as a 2.5 year wait of angry voters wanting to kick Obama out due to his health care bill. Although I still think many voters are going to elect their candidate based on economic indicators, I am considering changing my mind about whether the healthcare bill will pop up as a strong secondary reason why an angry conservative voter will vote for Romney instead of Obama.  

Last Minute Guide for the Last Minute Voter: 2012 Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary

As tomorrow holds the answer to who will run against Scott Walker in the recall election, here is the analysis on each other candidates and prediction on will be the Democratic Recall Nominee. (There's no sugar coating in this analysis)

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett 
Tom Barrett is more well known in the City of Milwaukee then elsewhere in the state. Let's be honest, most people hate Milwaukee mayors because of their inability to look past the usual crime that occurs in a large city (which means they hardly go into the city). However, that's not a big deal in this race because many years of voting shows most Democratic support concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane County.

Those living in or have access to Milwaukee television see Barrett as a candidate who has seen some revitalization in the city making the area around the Marquette Interchange look better. He also was a survivor of a vicious attack and came back to push better crime preventive measures. The downside of his candidacy, he ran for governor in 2010... against Scott Walker. It's unfortunate that the un-electable 2010 candidate has become the electable Democratic Primary Candidate. Although he sometimes put his foot down when getting heat to talk about an issue, he is not consistent which worries some voters of him not being strong enough to go against a strong vocal Walker.

County Supervisor Kathleen Falk
Kathleen Falk comes from Dane County, another state stronghold for Democratic Voters. She has been the county supervisor for a long time. Known as the "Union Candidate," she was there from the beginning of the movement to recall Scott Walker to restore the collective bargaining rights of public workers. Her strong stance is a double edged sword. On one hand, she showed her leadership in standing for what she believes in and did whatever she could to get things done. On the other hand, her stance and doing whatever it takes to restore collective bargaining doesn't scream being the "mom" of Wisconsin to unite the state back together.

Her other downside has to deal with her early entrance into the race. Some political analysts believe that Barrett entered the race because there were core Democratic Supports not fully in love with a Falk Candidacy. This could also be proven with the push for former US Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold to enter into the race. If she wins the nomination, she needs to strengthen her tone and perception of being a strong leader.

The Other Two Un-electable Candidates
When it comes to Professor LaFollette, he had some good ideas considering hes a reputable college professor. During the debate, his message focused on the "Wisconsin Idea" where education is a strong foundation along with collaborating with people one may disagree with. Although he had some interesting ideas, I view this candidate as a potential advisor on educational policy, especially for higher education institutions.

Out of the two un-electables, I really would have endorsed Vinehout if she was given enough media attention and was electable according to the party higher ups. Unfortunately, this state senator is not. Regardless, I liked her strong voice during the debate and she actually gave ideas on how to work on pushing legislation through realistically... and not in a populist was like how some of the other mainstream candidates would do.

My Prediction
I agree with the polls showing a good lead for Mayor Tom Barrett. Although he is not the strongest candidate the Democrats got out there right now, he has a realistic chance against Walker. Therefore, I predict it will be Barrett vs. Walker round 2.

Romney likely to win Presidential Nomination for Republicans

Yes, it does seem like there was a disappointing night for Mitt Romney and a promising one for Rick Santorum. However, the national spotlight has put negative attention on Santorum regarding his campaign's inability to file for being on several ballets in a handful of counties and/or states. As of this point, a safe assumption can be made that Romney will be the nomination winner, keeping his high campaign money spending, strong economic message, and pending no major screw ups (like a Howard Dean moment).

Although a comfortable prediction of his win can be made, his speech made in Massachusetts tonight could be a prelude to tactical mistakes that could cost him the candidacy or a second term in the White House if he wins the Presidential Election. He talked about balancing the budget by cutting unnecessary programs and pretty much undoing everything President Obama has done. The question that needs to be asked is if he over-promised tonight by telling his supporters of all the different taxes he wants to repeal, like the death tax and cutting taxes for businesses.

There is statistical evidence to place a bet on Mitt Romney winning due to the public opinion polls being reported in recent months. Many of the polls showed that the economy and deficit were one of the top concerns of Americans on the list. Then, there is a mixture of ranks between repealing Obama-Care, pro-life issues, and security. One can make a general correlation with what areas (regions, counties, states) presidential candidates won with those public opinion polls. For example, Mitt Romney were winning well populated areas that have economically established Republican voters. This gives Romney the economy candidate which gives him a statistical edge. Gingrich showed himself being a regionally south candidate while Romney being the leader of rural and Christian conservatives. 

Friday Mike Out Podcast (2/24/2012)

Welcome to Friday Mike Out, I am your host Mike Lampe from the situationalist.

These are your top three headliners from the week

1. Rick Santorum was the momentum candidate going into Wednesday's Presidential Debate. However he seemed to have slipped! It was, instead, Mitt Romney acting like the comeback kid, acting strong although a little stiff.

2. Things are getting interesting in Wisconsin Politics. Governor Scott Walker has seen better days considering the recall election pending to happen and his former aids indicted for illegally campaigning.

There is a bright side to Walker's troubles. There seems to be a hint of hesitation among liberals regarding the potential Democratic Recall Candidates. Along with poll numbers, this can be shown by the hype Russ Feingold got after telling Stephen Colbert on Comedy Central he is not looking to run.

3. Going back to Wednesday's blog, a new Marquette University Law School Poll indicates Obama still beating all potential Republican Candidates... This means the contraception issue did not affect him as much as some political commentators thought it would.

That is it for your Friday Mike Out from the Situationalist... Have a good weekend!

Election 2012: Obama's Win with Contraception Fiasco?

Welcome to The Situationalist beginning of Coverage of Election 2012!


Two weeks ago, it was made known that the Obama Administration had implemented a rule that forced religious institutions to cover the use of contraceptives to women that were asking for it. The media focused on the expressed anger of Catholic Bishops who oversaw Catholic medical centers and universities housing health services for their students. One could say this was another run of the mill when it comes to Democrats standing for Women's Issues while Republicans show their loyalty to the religious right.

However, one should wonder why the Obama Administration implemented this rule considering social issues have not been brought before in this election cycle. Why give the Republicans a reason to rally up a constituency that had been dormant for the last year and a half? Although some are calling foul and others are calling this an embarrassing move by the Obama campaign machine, it is interesting what has happened since this event occurred. Below are the events that occurred starting with the implementation of the policy:

1. Media recognizes implementation of the contraception policy
2. Political outcry by Catholic Leaders and other social conservatives
3. Rick Santorum (R) gains bump in the polls for his strong stance on social issues
4. Mitt Romney loses ground to Santorum and loses a handful of primaries
5. President Obama announces compromise given political outcry

Intentional or not, the Obama Administration has been able to shake up the Republican Primary in the short run which has made it harder for conservatives to fully back Romney as their Republican Nominee. Some political commentators are speculating that Santorum has become the momentum candidate which could lead to nomination. Although the Republicans will eventually unite to nominate a presidential candidate, The Obama Administration has been able to indirectly make political campaign contributions to Republicans more sporadic.

Blog/Article by The Situationalist - Mike Lampe