My Experience at the Barrett Camp Election Night

Besides my election party I had with Sam Dunlop who ran for State Assembly, I never went to a big election night party such as the one I went to for Tom Barrett Tuesday Evening. I did not go because I was an avid Barrett supporter. However, I felt the need to experience something that was quite historic considering Walker was the first American Governor in history to survive a recall election. I also want to send a personal thank you to my friend Caitlin for accompanying me last night! I do not think I would have had the guts to go by myself!

As a political analyst, I have always tried to stay as non-biased as possible. However, I found it difficult to fully understand what was happening with the election. Between being shocked to meet Jesse Jackson and trying to utilize my smart phone in a crowded room, I started getting my information on the hardcore supporters being overly optimistic about Barrett and discrediting the projections coming out of the news media. An example of this  was when people in the crowd saying that Milwaukee and Racine had still more people waiting to vote when the polls closed at 8PM.

As a person going along for the campaign ride, I was able to meet some awesome people, some angry and some just plain cool. I randomly walked up to a bunch of teachers with solidarity t-shirts and we had a small discussion on education and the issues relating to accountability. I also met some differently dressed firefighters who were part of the biker brigade. They personally knew Mahlon Mitchell and were also part of the Firefighters Union. I had a great conversation with them about the decline of the working class and why they felt it was important to keep fighting.

Most importantly, I was able to rethink about how politics is not a game... people's livelihoods are at stake when any policy is put into action. When Barrett lost, I felt bad to see that there were people in that room were hoping for someone to listen to them and fight for their struggles that seem impossible to overcome. Although I predicted Barrett would lose, one should not discredit the passion of the people I met in that room tonight. I also have to praise Governor Walker on his speech last night where he made it clear of wanting to work together. As of now, it appears as if he truly understands that he could have done things better when communicating his policies.

In the future, I could definitely see Mahlon Mitchell coming up through the Democratic ranks. It almost seemed like he was better when he was not reading from his notes. He did a great job to re-energize the party whom just heard Barrett give his concession speech. Now that all this is over, we can stop this election nonsense for a while... oh wait... Republican Primaries for U.S. Senate is coming up... 

Lampe's Analysis and Predictions on the Recall Election (VOTE TODAY)!

It is finally here. The recall election that will determine the fate of Governor Walker. Throughout the course of the recall campaign, I expressed concern of the shady conversations Walker had with donors and avid supports, while also expressing weak political campaigning from Tom Barrett. I do have to note that Barrett came out strong the week before the vote today bringing President Clinton for a surprise last minute visit and confidently and harshly calling out Walker about his policies and actions during the last debate at the Marquette University Law School.

Wisconsin also noticed that polls have given Walker a slight edge. Some polls showed him up as many as 8 points, while others should him around 4 points up. In my prediction, I believe Walker will win by three points. That is, if likely voters only vote today. The other side of my prediction is that Barrett could win by 1 point. After calling some of my sources throughout the state, registration lines have been busy to vote for the first time in their wards. We wont know if these new registered voters were leaning more Republican or Democrat. One could reason that, when Walker won, Democrats were not energized during the 2010 election that gave Walker the slight edge last go around. This time, Democrats/Liberals are angerly energized from the hard line Republican Policies.

So there you have it... although I think Walker has an advantage, I believe the polls might be slightly off due to the possibility of unlikely voters voting this going around (hence my analyzed margin of error).

Walker wins by 3%
or
Barrett wins by 1%

What I learned from the Walker Recall Fiasco

On Tuesday, we saw a historic and rare political event happening with the Recall Election of Gov. Scott Walker. We also noticed that there was a higher voter turning topping a little over 30% (as reported by the Appleton Post Crescent). Although it was an  interesting event that politicos will analyze from now until November, the current political state of Wisconsin is in much need of compromise and repair. Although you hear some political rhetoric about getting along, we are mostly hearing why their economic policy is better and how the other completely destroyed the jobs outlook of the state/city (Milwaukee).

Now what did I learn from this? Quite simply, this election throws a curveball in some politicos' minds about the voter not being rational in the sense of having a short mind-span when it comes to negative political events relating to a political candidate. The original frame of mind comes from how consumers have recently recently reacted to some economic tragedies of well knowing businesses. For example, one could notice consumers forgiving Ford quickly for their tire issue on their expeditions in the 90's and Toyota more recently with their brakes issue. Now, however, one could notice a difference in the Wisconsin voters based on the timeline the recall elections occur. 

One must remember that this all started back in February 2011 (over a year ago) when Gov. Walker introduced the collective bargaining bill to Wisconsin Residents. Once the law went into effect last summer, Wisconsin voters had to wait to petition a recall until the first year of the Governor's term was complete (per election law). Consider that timeline, many voters against the bill had to wait 6 months until they could start the whole process. Also considering all the media slip ups politicians make on almost a daily basis, many politicos did not think the recall election was overwhelmingly possible. Then, the news broke out about how the Democratic Party got over a million signatures, which surprised not only the Walker Campaign Team, but also myself.

We will have to wait and see what happens to Scott Walker in a few months when Barrett faces him in the general recall election, however I am curious what the Obama Campaign Team is thinking right now given this analysis. Considering 2 weeks is usually political eternity for political candidates, angry voters waiting impatiently for 6 months to recall a governor is a new twist in political strategy. Is 6 months for a controversial collective bargaining bill the same as a 2.5 year wait of angry voters wanting to kick Obama out due to his health care bill. Although I still think many voters are going to elect their candidate based on economic indicators, I am considering changing my mind about whether the healthcare bill will pop up as a strong secondary reason why an angry conservative voter will vote for Romney instead of Obama.  

Last Minute Guide for the Last Minute Voter: 2012 Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary

As tomorrow holds the answer to who will run against Scott Walker in the recall election, here is the analysis on each other candidates and prediction on will be the Democratic Recall Nominee. (There's no sugar coating in this analysis)

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett 
Tom Barrett is more well known in the City of Milwaukee then elsewhere in the state. Let's be honest, most people hate Milwaukee mayors because of their inability to look past the usual crime that occurs in a large city (which means they hardly go into the city). However, that's not a big deal in this race because many years of voting shows most Democratic support concentrated in Milwaukee and Dane County.

Those living in or have access to Milwaukee television see Barrett as a candidate who has seen some revitalization in the city making the area around the Marquette Interchange look better. He also was a survivor of a vicious attack and came back to push better crime preventive measures. The downside of his candidacy, he ran for governor in 2010... against Scott Walker. It's unfortunate that the un-electable 2010 candidate has become the electable Democratic Primary Candidate. Although he sometimes put his foot down when getting heat to talk about an issue, he is not consistent which worries some voters of him not being strong enough to go against a strong vocal Walker.

County Supervisor Kathleen Falk
Kathleen Falk comes from Dane County, another state stronghold for Democratic Voters. She has been the county supervisor for a long time. Known as the "Union Candidate," she was there from the beginning of the movement to recall Scott Walker to restore the collective bargaining rights of public workers. Her strong stance is a double edged sword. On one hand, she showed her leadership in standing for what she believes in and did whatever she could to get things done. On the other hand, her stance and doing whatever it takes to restore collective bargaining doesn't scream being the "mom" of Wisconsin to unite the state back together.

Her other downside has to deal with her early entrance into the race. Some political analysts believe that Barrett entered the race because there were core Democratic Supports not fully in love with a Falk Candidacy. This could also be proven with the push for former US Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold to enter into the race. If she wins the nomination, she needs to strengthen her tone and perception of being a strong leader.

The Other Two Un-electable Candidates
When it comes to Professor LaFollette, he had some good ideas considering hes a reputable college professor. During the debate, his message focused on the "Wisconsin Idea" where education is a strong foundation along with collaborating with people one may disagree with. Although he had some interesting ideas, I view this candidate as a potential advisor on educational policy, especially for higher education institutions.

Out of the two un-electables, I really would have endorsed Vinehout if she was given enough media attention and was electable according to the party higher ups. Unfortunately, this state senator is not. Regardless, I liked her strong voice during the debate and she actually gave ideas on how to work on pushing legislation through realistically... and not in a populist was like how some of the other mainstream candidates would do.

My Prediction
I agree with the polls showing a good lead for Mayor Tom Barrett. Although he is not the strongest candidate the Democrats got out there right now, he has a realistic chance against Walker. Therefore, I predict it will be Barrett vs. Walker round 2.

Friday Mike Out Podcast (2/24/2012)

Welcome to Friday Mike Out, I am your host Mike Lampe from the situationalist.

These are your top three headliners from the week

1. Rick Santorum was the momentum candidate going into Wednesday's Presidential Debate. However he seemed to have slipped! It was, instead, Mitt Romney acting like the comeback kid, acting strong although a little stiff.

2. Things are getting interesting in Wisconsin Politics. Governor Scott Walker has seen better days considering the recall election pending to happen and his former aids indicted for illegally campaigning.

There is a bright side to Walker's troubles. There seems to be a hint of hesitation among liberals regarding the potential Democratic Recall Candidates. Along with poll numbers, this can be shown by the hype Russ Feingold got after telling Stephen Colbert on Comedy Central he is not looking to run.

3. Going back to Wednesday's blog, a new Marquette University Law School Poll indicates Obama still beating all potential Republican Candidates... This means the contraception issue did not affect him as much as some political commentators thought it would.

That is it for your Friday Mike Out from the Situationalist... Have a good weekend!

BREAKING NEWS: Recall Elections Over in Wisconsin

It is official! Tonight marks the last of the recall elections in which two out of the six Republicans lost their seats to Democratic Recall candidates. The two Democrats up for a recall election have won both their seats back.

Both sides are declaring victory, with the Republicans stating that the four/six recall wins shows Wisconsin is not as upset about the collective bargaining as the Unions are portraying. The Democrats are declaring victory considering they did win two seats which means there is momentum for Democrats in the 2012 Election Cycle. History was made with State Senator Holperin (D) being the first state senator to have won two recall elections while serving office.

My Analysis: Considering Recall Elections are rarely won by the opposite party challenger, I believe this shows the Democrats (in Wisconsin) have a slight advantage going into the 2012 Election Cycle. However, I believe it will be a very close race. If I had to place my bets on the future elections tonight, I would see more Democrats winning in slight margins.

Of course that would determine on what happens between now or then. There could be a Howard Dean moment or the economy could sink in a double dip recession. However, a recent USA Today/Gall Up Poll suggested that there was a bigger drop in Republican Support vs. their Democratic counterparts. On top of that, Warren Buffett went on Charlie Rose recently discussing how Corporate America is starting to pick up the pace to recover. He describes the economy being hindered by the slowness in the housing market.

Also, New numbers show that Americans in general have been paying off their own debts as well as saving more than previously expected. In 2001, it was reported that Americans in general saved a mere 1% of their income. Last month, the general savings rate for Americans are at 5% of their income. This could suggest a better than expected turnout heading into the holiday season.

Lastly, although I am sure Unions will push forward for a Recall Election for Gov. Scott Walker, I do not believe the Recall Elections the past two weeks show a minimal return on investment for an expensive unusal election cycle.

Until next time,
The Situationalist.