BREAKING NEWS: Recall Elections Over in Wisconsin

It is official! Tonight marks the last of the recall elections in which two out of the six Republicans lost their seats to Democratic Recall candidates. The two Democrats up for a recall election have won both their seats back.

Both sides are declaring victory, with the Republicans stating that the four/six recall wins shows Wisconsin is not as upset about the collective bargaining as the Unions are portraying. The Democrats are declaring victory considering they did win two seats which means there is momentum for Democrats in the 2012 Election Cycle. History was made with State Senator Holperin (D) being the first state senator to have won two recall elections while serving office.

My Analysis: Considering Recall Elections are rarely won by the opposite party challenger, I believe this shows the Democrats (in Wisconsin) have a slight advantage going into the 2012 Election Cycle. However, I believe it will be a very close race. If I had to place my bets on the future elections tonight, I would see more Democrats winning in slight margins.

Of course that would determine on what happens between now or then. There could be a Howard Dean moment or the economy could sink in a double dip recession. However, a recent USA Today/Gall Up Poll suggested that there was a bigger drop in Republican Support vs. their Democratic counterparts. On top of that, Warren Buffett went on Charlie Rose recently discussing how Corporate America is starting to pick up the pace to recover. He describes the economy being hindered by the slowness in the housing market.

Also, New numbers show that Americans in general have been paying off their own debts as well as saving more than previously expected. In 2001, it was reported that Americans in general saved a mere 1% of their income. Last month, the general savings rate for Americans are at 5% of their income. This could suggest a better than expected turnout heading into the holiday season.

Lastly, although I am sure Unions will push forward for a Recall Election for Gov. Scott Walker, I do not believe the Recall Elections the past two weeks show a minimal return on investment for an expensive unusal election cycle.

Until next time,
The Situationalist.